Main image via CNET
Ahead of the FIFA 2018 World Cup kicking off on 14 June, scientists have offered their predictions on the winner!
via GIPHY
The scientists are a team from the Technical University of Dortmund in Germany. They have combined something called “machine learning” and statistics to identify the most likely winner of the 2018 World Cup.
The outcome was reached based on simulating the tournament 100,000 times and comparing three different modelling approaches based on performances in the four previous tournaments from 2002 until 2014.
via GIPHY
The approach is called the “random-forest” approach, but we know you all don’t care about any of this and just wanna know who is the most likely winner. Right?
Well, it isn’t that simple. Their experiment doesn’t just simply select the best team at the beginning of the tournament, but predicts the likelihood of the team’s progression through the various stages of the tournament.
Anyway, the scientists believe that Spain are most likely to lift the trophy—but only after reaching the quarter finals (of which they have a 73% chance at doing)
The researchers added that if Germany were to clear the group phase of the competition, their chances of reaching the quarter-finals would increase to 58%.
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Despite whatever the scientists think, we wish all teams the best of luck! We mean come on, what do SCIENTISTS know about FOOTBALL. Amirite?
Info via Interesting Engineering and Sky News
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